After holding a double-digit advantage over his nearest rivals just six weeks ago, the former New York City mayor now is tied nationally with former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney at 20% among Republicans, just slightly ahead of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 17% and Arizona Sen. John McCain at 14%.
Other polls show Mr. Giuliani's lead shrinking in Florida, one of the states he has based his strategy around.
With his standing slipping nationally and in key states, Mr. Giuliani this week accelerated his unconventional retreat from the early voting states to focus on later contests where he thinks his Northeastern roots and his record as a moderate on social issues may play better. He was in Missouri yesterday, one of several states holding Feb. 5 primaries. "A baseball game, you've got to play nine innings, and whoever gets the most runs at the end of the nine innings wins," he said in defense of his strategy.
Another factor injecting uncertainty in the race: The mood of the electorate is rapidly shifting, as attention to Iraq fades and economic concerns gain, according to the poll. In recent months, "I kinda switched between Romney, Giuliani and Thompson," says 25-year-old Adam Cates, who works in real estate in Conway, S.C., and attended a Romney rally yesterday. Now rising fears about the economy have him backing Mr. Romney, a former private-equity executive.
Meanwhile, the campaign agenda is shifting as well. Perceptions of military progress in Iraq have reduced the proportion of voters who cite Iraq as a top priority for Washington to 36% from 46% last month. With many Americans now expecting a recession, health care and the economy now rank nearly as high as Iraq, which could prove unwelcome for Messrs. McCain and Giuliani, both identified with national-security issues.
"I was kind of for McCain but I don't know, it just seems like Romney's got a better act," said Ralph Stork, a 79-year-old retired marina operator at the Romney event in South Carolina yesterday. "We've got a lot of bad things going on in the economy, we've got housing problem, the banks have all a lot of problems with it. It just doesn't look good, you know?" he said. "We need somebody that can really handle and has some knowledge about how to go about doing that."Romney is the only one who can speak credibly about economic answers.
1 comment:
The WSJ application for browsing that poll's crosstabs is really cool.
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