As I mentioned in an earlier post, national poll numbers at this point mean nothing. In that post I pointed out that Kerry only had 7% of the Democrats nationally before winning Iowa. He jumped to 29% nationally two days later and moved to 53% nationally after winning New Hampshire.The big boys in media also try to discount Mitt because they say only Rudy can beat Hillary, basing their assumption on national head-to-head polls. Mymanmitt has a great story showing that national head-to-head polls fail to accurately predict future head-to-head election performance. Please go here for the full story. It's worth reading.
In short, W was crushing Gore from Fall 1999 to Summer 2000 and lost the popular vote in November. Dukakis was beating H.W. by 17% months before the elections and lost by 8%. The most amazing example is that Carter was beating Reagan 63% to 32% in January of 1980. John Anderson (Republican) thought Reagan couldn't win nationally so Anderson ran as an independent, sucking more O2 (6% of the vote) from the Republican room. Reagan still beat Carter by 9% in November.
Like all other national polls, polls about head-to-head match ups mean nothing right now. Rudy's supposed ability to beat Hillary is just a talking point. Such polls are little more than a name recognition contest. Vote for the best candidate now. He will be the most likely to win next November.
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