Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Keeping things in perspective...

John McCain won the Florida primary despite losing among mainstream Republican voters, including evangelicals, conservatives, and white Protestants.

He owes his remarkable victory instead to support from Hispanics, those over 65 and independents.

Florida was the first big state to hold its primary. With 10 million registered voters, it is more typical of the US electorate as a whole than Iowa or New Hampshire.

But it does have some unusual characteristics, including a large Hispanic community based in Miami, a large number of retired people, and an important group of military veterans.

And it was these groups who gave Senator McCain with his margin of victory.

The Florida Republican primary was closed, and only voters who had previously registered as Republicans could vote.

Nevertheless, nearly one in five voters told the exit poll that they were now independents, and this group went strongly for Mr McCain.

Similarly, Mr McCain ran strongly among the minority of Republicans who described their political views as liberal or moderate, while losing 29% to 37% to Mr Romney among conservatives (who made up 61% of Republican voters).

Those Republican voters who wanted a candidate who shared their values tended to support Mr Romney.

Mr Romney showed particular strength among voters who were worried about illegal immigration, an issue in which he disagrees sharply with Mr McCain.

These results show that he [McCain] still has an uphill task in convincing more traditional Republican voters to back him as we approach Super Tuesday, when 24 states vote next week.

To read the full article: BBC

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