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Saturday, April 9, 2016

April 19: New York (95 delegates)
Trump is on track to score a big win in his home state. The only question is just how big it will be. As we went to press, Trump was at 53 percent in the Real Clear Politics average of New York polls, with John Kasich and Ted Cruz each more than 30 points behind. In New York, a candidate gets 14 delegates if he gets 50 percent of the statewide vote (those delegates are awarded proportionally if no candidate hits 50 percent). Each of New York's 27 congressional districts awards three delegates. If someone wins 50 percent in a congressional district, he gets all three delegates. If the winner is below 50 percent, he gets two delegates and the runner-up gets one.

The goal for Trump's opponents in New York will be to keep him under 50 percent in as many congressional districts as possible. Trump could walk away from New York with more than 90 delegates, but it's possible he could be held to fewer than 75. (Even that small of a difference could make or break Trump's effort to go into the convention with at least 1,237 delegates.) It's been difficult to knock Trump's share of the vote down from what he was getting in polls a week or two out from a given state's election, but it has happened in a couple of states, such as South Carolina and Iowa.

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