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Karen Handel lost her (Trump+2, Price+23) district by 3,000 votes. Brian Kemp lost it by 14,000. https://t.co/xJfMQ620vg @MichaelRWarren’s look at the rout of Trump’s GOP in the suburbs.

— John McCormack (@McCormackJohn) November 9, 2018

In suburban areas across the country, from New York to Utah to Michigan to Virginia to Kansas, the GOP is losing support. There’s no question this has a lot to do with the president. Some of these areas are in states Trump won in 2016, some he lost, but what unites most of them is how much they look like a key part of the Republican coalition: suburban, educated, above-average wealth.

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But there’s a problem: These suburban voters are not Trump’s base. In many ways they are the segment of the party Trump’s candidacy was designed to ignore, downplay, or even antagonize. Republicans in these districts aren’t as alarmed by immigration. They prefer the benefits of global trade to the protections of tariffs. They bristle at Trump’s coarse style of politics that punches first and asks questions later. For these voters, civility and moral leadership are more than just niceties—they’re motivating issues. The message Trump and the GOP send, either incidentally or intentionally, is that these Americans matter less. Increasingly, they’re listening.

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...But it’s also possible that this year’s unhappy suburban voters are the first sign of a weakening Republican coalition, one that might not end up liking Trump as much in 2020 as he will need them to.