Poll: 'None of the above' leads GOP field

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The latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that nearly a quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals.

Read this to catch the entire story.

"Democrats are reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys would be fine," David Redlawsk, a University of Iowa political scientist. "The Republicans don't have that; particularly among the conservatives there's a real split. They just don't see candidates who reflect their interests and who they also view as viable."

Mr. Redlawsk has it wrong with the Republicans. As is true of many academics at the U of Iowa, I'm assuming he's fairly liberal. (I attended the U of Iowa for five years.) There is a split among conservatives, but this split has no connection to viability. We're trying to figure out who's the most viable conservative. I think Mitt or Rudy could beat Hillary. Fred has less of a chance, in my opinion. And McCain will be mentioned less and less as time goes on.

Andrew E. Smith, a polling expert at the University of New Hampshire, said the number of voters in flux is no surprise, given that the primaries aren't for another six months. "People really don't decide who to vote for until the last couple months or days," he said.

This is only partly true. Those in Iowa, NH, and other early primary states are more tuned in. And--not surprisingly--this is precisely where Mitt is gaining his hard-earned lead (in the polls).

Conclusion: "None of the above" is only temporary. Rudy is not conservative and will fade slowly. McCain will lose membership among the front runners within a few weeks, maybe months. Once Fred is exposed to balanced, consistent scrutiny, support will coalesce around Mitt Romney. Mitt will secure the lead, and hold it all the way to the White House. Actually, it may not happen exactly like this, but the outcome will be the same.