Analysis - What's Really Going On

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Ok, what's the real state of the race when we're looking forward to what's most important for our country, winning in November??? Let's start with who's won how many states:

• McCain - 12
• Romney - 11
• Huckabee - 6

First observation, there are two front runners: Romney and McCain. Huckabee is just a regional phenomenon and shows no ability to win outside the South in a 3 way contest. Remember, McCain dropped out of Iowa when he realized he couldn't finish in the top three.

Now to take it a step further, lets look at the states that McCain and Romney have won so far, and see how this translates into winning the Whitehouse. I've color coded the states that voted as they voted in 2004, red for Bush-Cheney, blue for Kerry-McCain...

• Romney: Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Utah, Wyoming
• McCain: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina

As you can see, Romney is winning more of the states that we will be able to count on in 2008. It's reasonable we could be picking up Massachusetts in that list as well, Mitt's won a statewide election there before. Michigan, Romney's birth state, another possible pick up. That's 9 states in the general.

McCain on the other hand, has only 4 solid GOP states on his list. The rest of those liberal states aren't pick a democrat-lite like Mccain when they can get the real deal in Hillary and Obama.

The analysis is pretty convincing - Nominating McCain would be electoral suicide.