The most used argument to vote for McCain is that he can beat Hillary because he is electable. The two main explanations are: (1) his brand of reaching across the aisle and integrity which the media has been shoving down our throats for weeks (and years), and (2) his competitiveness in the head-to-head matchup polls.
Many have rebutted these by talking about how his straight talk is as straight as a San Francisco is flat and that polls are unreliable (polls 5 months ago had Rudy sweeping to the nomination). But I think that there are better rebuttals.
I got a phone call the other day, and it was a poll. It took 2 minutes from my bed. I didn't think about my options, I just responded. In retrospect, I know one of the choices I made wouldn't have been how I would vote. In 2006, the GOP lost the Federal Congressional majority. Many seats the GOP lost had candidates that were “electable” and reasonable candidates. Why did they lose? Why did we lose? One reason was that there was a small percentage of 2004 GOP voters that just stayed home. Maybe that was 2%, maybe it was 8%. If someone would have polled these people just before the 2006 election cycle (i.e. called them in their home with a choice between a DNC and GOP candidate), they likely would have chosen the GOP candidate. But, to take the time and make an effort to go to the voting booth was more than they would do for a party that, as they thought, had been a little too close to power for a little too long doing a little too little for them. These people did not feel 'represented' by their representatives.
In the same sense, Senator John McCain is “electable” – he has been competitive in the head-to-head polls (although, if I remember correctly, Rudy was much more so). But will those same people who were polled actually vote even if they intend to?
The Republican Party is a HUGE tent that holds a HUGE diversity of opinions. So, yes, Senator McCain is a Republican, he has done good service in many ways and he represents a portion of the Republican Party. But Congressmen (Dr.) Ron Paul is a Republican too, he has reminded us of some founding principles that we should always keep in mind when we make decisions, and he represents another group of people in the Republican Party. And I am happy that our party can welcome both groups of people. Both agree with me (or I with them) on some important issues. However, there are more disagreements between our opinion and, therefore, neither represent me well. And this is the key – neither represents the GOP as a whole. We need people like them in the party. Senator McCain Congressman Paul. BUT they do not represent me very well.
So the question is Will John McCain represent enough voters from the right to actually get (1) them to contribute enough money to compete and (2) get them vote when it takes time and effort. He is winning the endorsement game but REALLY losing the money game. Endorsements are like polls and are easy to give (e.g. lip service). Money requires people to truly believe in you. So, if so few people have given him money to help him get elected, will a majority of people give him their vote to get him elected? I think there will be a lot of people who won't take the effort to go vote. Can he get that small percentage that stayed home in 2006 to get to the voting booth? I don't think so. If anything, he has grown that small percentage to 15-20%.
Particularly when people ask themselves if they’d rather have 4 years of a Democrat or 8 years of a liberal Republican.
McCain may win the nomination, but he will lose the election.
Read me at my day job.
1 comment:
my thoughts exactly....
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